The world’s chocolate lovers are facing an expensive reality as climate change continues to wreak havoc on cocoa production in West Africa.
A new report has revealed that extreme temperatures, disease, and erratic rainfall are severely impacting harvests in the region responsible for approximately 70% of the world’s cocoa supply.
As a result, the price of cocoa has surged to record highs, with experts warning of further increases.
Climate Change and Rising Temperatures
According to a study by independent research group Climate Central, global heating has significantly increased the number of excessively hot days in key cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria.
Using data from 44 cocoa-producing areas, researchers found that over the past decade, global warming has added three extra weeks of extreme heat—temperatures above 32°C (89.6°F)—during the crucial growing season from October to March.
In 2023, the hottest year on record globally, excessive heat affected two-thirds of cocoa-growing areas, with temperatures exceeding 32°C on at least 42 days.
These soaring temperatures are pushing cocoa trees beyond their optimum growing conditions, leading to lower yields and declining bean quality.
Multiple Threats to Cocoa Harvests
Beyond rising temperatures, other factors are exacerbating the crisis. Cocoa trees are also struggling with mealybug infestations, erratic rainfall patterns, illegal mining, and smuggling, all of which contribute to declining production levels.
A separate study by Christian Aid highlights how extreme rainfall during the dry season in 2023, followed by severe drought in 2024, has further devastated cocoa farms in West Africa.
“Growing cocoa is a vital livelihood for many of the poorest people around the world, and human-caused climate change is putting that under serious threat,” said Osai Ojigho, director of policy and public campaigns at Christian Aid.
Surging Cocoa Prices and the Cost to Consumers
The impact of dwindling cocoa supplies is already evident in global markets. Since late 2023, cocoa prices have soared, peaking at more than $12,500 per ton in mid-December.
While prices in New York have recently hovered around $10,000 per ton, this is still a staggering increase compared to the historical range of $2,000 to $3,000 per ton.
In response, major chocolate manufacturers are adjusting their prices.
Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Sprüngli has already announced further price hikes in 2024 to offset rising cocoa costs, and other companies are expected to follow suit.
A Bitter Future for Chocolate?
The current cocoa crisis serves as a stark reminder of how climate change is disrupting global food systems.
Without urgent intervention—such as investment in climate-resilient cocoa farming, improved irrigation methods, and sustainable agricultural practices—the world may face not only pricier chocolate but also long-term supply shortages.
