A new survey by Sanity Africa has projected a tight race in the upcoming Akwatia parliamentary by-election, with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Lawyer Bernard Baidoo, holding a narrow lead over the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Solomon Asumadu. Conducted between August 1 and 27, the poll places Baidoo at 52.3% against Asumadu’s 47.7%, a slim 4.6-point margin.
The September 2 contest, triggered by the passing of NPP MP Ernest Kumi, is shaping up as a fierce test of political strength in a constituency known for swinging between both major parties.
While Baidoo emerged through an internal NDC selection, the NPP’s decision to handpick Asumadu, a mining sector figure, has stirred unease among some grassroots members—a factor researchers suggest could influence the final outcome.
Sanity Africa’s findings reveal sharp demographic divides. Baidoo dominates among graduates and educated voters, while Asumadu commands support among the unemployed, youth, and galamsey-linked communities.
Turnout, however, is expected to be decisive, with researchers predicting participation at just 48% due to political fatigue and heavy security presence.
These projections align with a separate poll by Global Info Analytics, conducted August 27–28, which also places the NDC candidate—listed in their survey as Bernard Bediako—ahead with 53% support compared to 47% for Asumadu.
For the NDC, a win in Akwatia would boost its parliamentary numbers and momentum toward 2028, while the NPP is desperate to hold the seat as proof of unity amid discontent over its candidate choice.
With only days to go, both parties are intensifying door-to-door efforts in what has become one of Ghana’s most closely watched by-elections in years.
